Aftermath

Global interest in Yemen is steadily declining yet fighting in the war-torn country continues. A deadlock between the two major combatants, the Saudi-backed Yemeni government and the Houthi movement, seems to be breaking. The biblical city of Ma’rib is becoming the latest frontier in what the UN has called the world’s worst humanitarian crisis. We may prefer to forget it, but this crisis is perpetuated by the actions of wealthy countries, it is therefore critical that pressure on our governments in the global north does not fade.

Middle Eastern politics is often as mysterious, driven by complex theological details and archaic eastern logic. This serves to excuse apathy and make situations such as the conflict in Yemen seem like the kind of thing only experts should handle. This is a dangerous narrative, the civil war is not straightforward, but nor is it so alien and remote as to be unintelligible.

The Arab Spring led to the removal of the President of Yemen in 2012. From 2015 onward the new government has been at war with an advancing rebel organisation often known as the Houthis. Over the last six years, the Houthis have advanced from their stronghold in the North to control the capital Sanaa, and the port city Hodeida. The Yemeni Government has allied with a Saudi-led coalition of Arab states to combat the Houthis. Most of the fighting has been between the two groups, but there are smaller factions as well, principally al-Qaeda affiliates, as well as the Southern Separatist forces fighting for their independence.

It is a convoluted situation, but it is not isolated, each side is dependent on international networks of arms dealers, without which the conflict would not be possible. The Saudi-led coalition, which has become infamous for war crimes against Yemen’s civilians, buys its weapons primarily from the United Kingdom, and until this year, the United States. The Houthis (who are by no means innocent themselves) rely on arms smuggled in from Iran, and the complicated de-facto protection of Russia.

The arms trade has continued to pump weapons into a country that was already the poorest in the Middle East. Now Yemen has the third most guns per capita, after only to the United States and the Falkland Islands. Then there are the arms used on the Yemeni population from outside, principally drone and jet fighter attacks from the Saudi-led coalition, attacks which have drawn international condemnation for the killing of civilians. Including blowing up a school bus in Northern Yemen back in 2018, killing 40 children.

Much of the fighting in recent years has focussed on the western port of Hodeida, the Houthis have fought like hell to hold it, as it allows them to control the import of food into the country, as well as serving as a base to attack the Saudi oil trade. From February, the Houthis have moved east, advancing onto Ma’rib, hoping to take seize the city and its nearby oil fields from the Yemeni Government.

The fighting is intensifying once more, but Yemen now seems to be old news. Last year there seemed to be hope that things may be changing for the better. In the wake of the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, the UK and America came under pressure to re-examine their partnership with Saudi Arabia, and this bought some attention to the western powers’ involvement in Yemen. To this end, Joe Biden signalled that if he became president he would take a tough stance of the Gulf Kingdom. Now, half a year into his presidency, and on the brink of another disaster for Yemen, has anything changed?

Biden did release a CIA report that amounted to a condemnation of the country for ordering the journalist’s murder, and announced sanctions against some Saudi officials, but failed to include crown prince Mohammed bin Salman on that list.

More significantly, he promised to end “all American support for offensive operations in the war in Yemen, including relevant arms sales.” By April this year, this had turned out to be a lie. The White House authorised $23 billion worth of arms sales to the UAE, a key partner in the Saudi-led coalition. Officially the weapons are not “offensive” but rather “may be construed to have a defensive purpose”. Such ‘defensive’ matériel include Lockheed Martin’s signature F-35 fighter jets as well as General Atomics MQ-9 model reaper drones.

For now, the US continues to halt its arms sales directly to Saudi Arabia, but the kingdom need not worry, what they cannot buy from the States can always be purchased from BAE systems and Airbus under UK export license. Boris Johnson’s government has not even mirrored Washington’s perfunctory denouncement of Riyadh. The UK has not wavered in its commitment to supporting Saudi Arabia and its efforts in the war, while simultaneously slashing the aid budget for Yemen by 60% without carrying out an assessment of the potential impact this will have.

So long as arms manufacturers answer to their investors’ demand for growth, and the international community does not inhibit them, then the conflict in Yemen can only continue to worsen. France, Germany, Italy, and now the US have all suspended arms trade to Saudi Arabia. But unless the Saudi Coalition as a whole is meaningfully cut off from arms suppliers, they will not return to the negotiation table for honest peace talks.  It is the duty of civilians in the countries that supply the weaponry to hold their governments to account.